The Paradox of Talent: & why talent may not be the best predictor of success

Talent is a powerful currency. It is easily spotted. Once recognised it is revered by all who see it. Opportunities are readily opened to any who possess it. However, the key question is whether or not it is the best predictor of success? In this article I'll explore why I don't think it is.

Recently I have found myself spending a lot of time thinking about talent.

For the last two years my Saturday morning routine has consisted of watching my daughter do gymnastics. As you can imagine at 5 years old the level of the class is not quite Olympic standard!

However, it is evidently clear that certain children in the class have more 'talent' than others.

They seem to have an almost natural ability to manipulate their bodies more eloquently than most of the others in the class.

My daughter is not one of those girls! In fact for much of her time since starting gymnastics she has wrestled with fear - whether it be balancing on the beam, or jumping off high boxes.

Yet, what she lacks in talent she makes up in hard work & determination!!

Watching her move slowly & nervously across the beam - while some of the other girls bounce confidently & gracefully across, she simply refuses to give up (with a little coaching & encouragement from us of course).

Recently, she received her first level 1 gymnastics badge - after almost 18 months of hard consistent effort.

At 5 years old we realised that she had been working toward that badge for almost a third of her life up to that point!

At such a young ages she has already learned that consistent effort & hard work are the best predictors of success.

The Mathematics of Talent

Whenever I think about talent, I am reminded of Angela Duckworth's work on the psychology of resilience (See: Duckworth, Grit, 2018; see also Anders Ericsson, Peak, 2016; Malcolm Gladwell, Outliers, 2008).

She termed a helpful equation to better understand the mathematics of success & achievement, which challenged the preconceived norms around talent. See below:

Talent x effort = skill

Skill x effort = achievement

In her view talent isn't enough to predict success. In fact, 'effort' is the key ingredient that produces both skill & achievement. Moreover, talent & effort are not necessarily weighted in equal measure. This makes logical sense!

You can have someone who has high levels of 'natural' talent but gives low effort; & someone with lower 'natural' talent but produces high effort to develop skill.

Obviously, the higher the talent + higher the effort = quicker the result to achieve higher levels of skill.

How often do you hear the same story of the high talented individual who fails to tap in to their pre-destined potential? Why? Because they believed their talent alone guaranteed success - thus neglecting the hard work required to get there.

Conversely, there is the common story of the underdog who had lower levels talent but outworked their peers, & went on to be a huge success.

The mathematic formula highlights the importance how consistency, hard work, & practice can have a compounding effect, & why those with lower talent can outperform the 'talented' with patient determination & work.

Aesop's Fable: The Tortoise & The Hare

This idea has prevailed for millennia, notably with the famous 5th century Greek slave, Aesop's, classic fable, The Tortoise & The Hare.

The fable showcases the confidence of the talented hare, while highlighting its idleness & disregard for the importance of work. The hare believed that short sporadic bursts of brilliance were enough to win the race.

Conversely, the fable also showcases the opposite untalented character of the tortoise, of whom on paper had none of the attributes to even compete in a race with a hare.

As we know, the story ends with the shock of the hare & the victory of the tortoise. Why? Because the slow, untalented tortoise kept plodding toward the goal of the finish line with a consistent, hard working attitude.

The fable ultimately illuminates that moments of brilliance & shear talent alone are not enough for success. It is the hard work & a commitment to keep turning up consistently that reaps the rewards.

Hope For The Rest of Us?

This is the great paradox of talent because it goes against our sub-conscious perceptions of success.

In almost all arenas of life, those who are deemed to possess the most talent are offered the greatest opportunities. But as we have discovered talent doesn't necessarily mean results!

Moreover, how often does the hard working untalented individual of whom consistently turns up, go unnoticed?

Over the long-term the ancient truism suggests these individuals could in fact possess the best tools for success.

This is hope for all of us who wouldn't consider themselves talented in the common sense of the word!

In addition, although I think Duckworth's formula is helpful, I would evolve it slightly to include another valuably important 'moderating' variable : Desire.

Talent x effort x desire = skill

A moderating variable is a third variable that effects the correlation of two variables. You could have all the talent in the world, but without desire you will not commit to the effort, & vis-versa.

Desire is a core ingredient that unlocks the well-spring of untapped potential!

I firmly believe that with both desire & effort you can set yourself on a path to achieve anything you set your mind too.

There is nothing you can't achieve if you are willing to commit yourself to the hard process of consistent effort toward a goal. Over the long term - with this philosophy, the dividing line between the talented & untalented will almost certainly become blurred.

Friedrich Nietzsche said that 'our vanity, our self-love, promotes the cult of the genius. For if we think of genius as something magical, we are not obliged to compare ourselves and find ourselves lacking'. (see: Human, All Too Human)

If I was to compare myself to the hare, I may never get to the start line.

But if I compare myself to the ethos of the tortoise I am confident I can finish.

This is the true path to genius. This is the paradox of talent!

In summary, don't let your lack of perceived talent limit you from achievement. With the right effort, coupled with a desire to see progress, there isn't a skill that exists that isn't achievable.

Dare to expand your horizons & you will be amazed at the kind of person you can become.

Much love, Rossi

(instagram: r_coulbeck)